Global Weather Forecast

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The global weather forecast for 2026 is defined by a major transition in the Pacific Ocean and a continuation of unprecedented global heat. After a period of cooling La Niña conditions, the world is moving toward a "Super El Niño" by the second half of the year.

1. The Big Shift: From La Niña to El Niño

The first half of 2026 is seeing the dissolution of the multi-year La Niña.

• Neutral Phase (Spring 2026): We are currently in a transition period. Most models suggest ENSO-neutral conditions will prevail through May–July.

• The "Global Furnace" (Late 2026): There is a 62% chance of El Niño emerging by August. Some meteorologists are already warning of a "Super El Niño" status, which would trigger a massive "atmospheric reset" and likely push 2027 to even more extreme record temperatures.

2. Temperature Outlook

Despite the temporary "cooling" influence of La Niña early in the year, 2026 is forecast to be one of the four warmest years on record.

• Average Increase: Global temperatures are expected to be approximately 1.46°C above pre-industrial levels.

• Heatwaves: Extreme heat remains the primary threat. March 2026 has already seen "virtually impossible" heatwaves in Western North America, with temperatures in places like Phoenix hitting 41°C (106°F)—shattering previous March records.

• Regional Trends: Above-normal land surface temperatures are predicted for most of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes through the summer.

3. Major Weather Risks in 2026

Rapid Intensification

• Regions: Hurricanes in the Atlantic and Western Pacific.

• Risk: Storms strengthening faster due to extreme ocean heat.

Compound Disasters

• Regions: Global (especially built-up areas).

• Risk: "Heat-to-wildfire" or "drought-to-flood" sequences.

Severe Drought

• Regions: The Mediterranean, South America, and the Western US.

• Risk: Water scarcity and increased pressure on agriculture.

Flash Flooding

• Regions: Urban areas with outdated drainage infrastructure.

• Risk: Intensification of extreme rainfall events.

4. Summary of Global Climate State

The Met Office and WMO suggest that 2026 marks the fourth consecutive year exceeding the 1.4°C threshold. While it may not beat the absolute record set in 2024, the building heat in the Pacific suggests that the late-year El Niño will act as a springboard for further climate extremes heading into 2027

PredictWind delivers the world's most accurate forecast data, with the top ranking regional, global and hi-res forecast models:

https://www.predictwind.com/news

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